Convective Outlook for Oct 08, 2026
Issued as Day 1 Convective Outlook at · Valid:
Summary
Localized severe thunderstorms, including potential tornadoes and hail, are expected tonight across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Iowa.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 090100 SWODY1 SPC AC 090058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of Iowa tonight. ...Florida Peninsula... Water vapor imagery currently shows a plume of mid-level moisture associated with Hurricane Isaias from the central Gulf of America northeastward across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated with Isaias will move inland across the Florida Peninsula this evening into tonight. Over the southern half of Florida, the RAP shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The most favorable zone for rotating storms will be along the northern edge of the stronger instability near and to the southeast of Tampa Bay. RAP forecast soundings in the area have veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km with enough low-level shear for an isolated tornado threat. ...Iowa... At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow is located over the central and northern U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through South Dakota. Lift will be maximized in the mid Missouri Valley ahead of this feature, along the far eastern edge of a central Plains low-level speed max. As low-level flow increases this evening, elevated storms will continue to develop over western and central Iowa. RAP forecast soundings in west-central Iowa show a sharp temperature inversion at low-levels, with steep lapse rates above 900 mb. The resulting MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with about 50 knots of effective shear should be enough for an isolated hail threat. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2026 $$