Convective Outlook for Oct 25, 2026
Issued as Day 1 Convective Outlook at · Valid:
Summary
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, or a tornado are possible this evening and overnight across portions of eastern New Mexico, far west Texas, and the western Texas Panhandle.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 260045 SWODY1 SPC AC 260044 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening and into the night from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a tornado or two are possible in these areas. ... 01Z Update ... Isolated strong thunderstorms continue this evening across portions of southeast New Mexico into portions of Texas Panhandle. Rain-cooled air to the north has reinforced a modest baroclinic zone along and south of Santa Rosa to Tucumcari, NM northeast toward Guymon. Along and south of this boundary, MUCAPE values have risen into in excess of 2000 J/kg, with 35-50 knots of bulk shear analyzed within SPC's objective analysis routines. A quick examination of a time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensemble indicates this zone may yet serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm intensity, particularly across New Mexico, over the next several hours. As such, an isolated tornado or large hail threat will remain with any isolated/discrete thunderstorm along and south of this boundary. Additionally, a few strong wind gusts and perhaps isolated wind damage will be possible with any intense thunderstorm that can develop farther south where low-level lapse rates will remain somewhat steeper for a few more hours as compared to areas farther north. Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes will remain possible along the Pacific Northwest coast, along the east coast of Florida, and the Florida Keys. ..Marsh.. 10/26/2026 $$