Convective Outlook for Oct 30, 2026
Issued as Day 1 Convective Outlook at · Valid:
Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of southern and central Arizona this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 310035 SWODY1 SPC AC 310033 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening in parts of southern and central Arizona. ...Arizona... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest with a notable dry slot extending from southern California into western Arizona. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is located in the Sierra Nevada of eastern California with a trough extending southeastward into southwestern Arizona. Surface dewpoints along the surface trough are in the upper 50s to mid 60s F. Low-level convergence along the surface trough and large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level system have contributed to recent convective development across parts of western and central Arizona. Cell initiation will continue to be possible near the surface trough for much of the evening. In addition, the RAP has an axis of instability extending from northern Mexico into central Arizona, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWP at Phoenix is sampling the wind profile east of the instability axis and has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with gradually veering winds with height in the low to mid-levels. This should support an isolated severe threat with rotating cells. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats over the next few hours. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2026 $$