Mesoscale Discussion 2352
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2352 at · Valid:
Summary
Isolated tornadoes may occur across portions of far eastern Georgia and central to southern South Carolina through the late afternoon. The most significant risk for tornadoes is expected along the South Carolina coastline.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 101433 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101432 SCZ000-GAZ000-101700- Mesoscale Discussion 2352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Georgia into central and southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101432Z - 101700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for isolated tornadoes will increase through the remainder of the morning into the late afternoon hours. The best chance for a tornado in the near-term will be with storms making landfall on the SC coastline, where the best low-level moisture and instability resides. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is contributing to gradual boundary-layer destabilization within the right-front quadrant of Isaias' remnants, which should gradually increase the isolated tornado threat through the morning hours. At the moment, the best airmass resides over southeast GA (between ongoing convection in SC and the primary confluence band across central GA). This surface-based airmass encompasses mid to upper 70s F surface temperatures and equivalent dewpoints, yielding over 1200 J/kg MLCAPE (when modifying the 12Z CHS observed sounding). Supercells along the SC coastline are showing more persistent low-level rotation, and these are the most likely storms to produce a tornado over the next couple of hours. Despite impressively enlarged/curved hodographs depicted by regional VADs (with over 400 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH noted), much of the inland airmass remains relatively stable. Given how stable the airmass is inland from the coast, the timing of a Tornado Watch remains uncertain. However, a watch issuance will be needed at some point once surface-base destabilization becomes more widespread. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... LAT...LON 32208038 31818087 31718109 31808161 32218209 32818244 33428254 33618236 33768084 33777900 33697884 33157915 32757964 32208038 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH