Mesoscale Discussion 2358
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2358 at · Valid:
Summary
Developing thunderstorms in portions of southeastern Idaho, western Wyoming, and northern Utah may bring isolated risks of damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail through the evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 102205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102205 WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-110000- Mesoscale Discussion 2358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Idaho...western Wyoming...and northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102205Z - 110000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. DISCUSSION...Recent observations indicate an uptick in lightning activity with ongoing convection coincident with the development of weak buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) across southeastern Idaho and northern Utah over the past hour. While available buoyancy is expected to remain limited, strong southwesterly flow aloft (30-40 kts at ~3 km AGL per the MTX/SFX VWPs) downstream of an mid/upper trough centered over the Pacific Northwest is contributing to 30-45+ kts of effective shear across the region. This will allow for convective organization into one or more linear clusters and perhaps marginal supercell structures. With steep low- and mid-level lapse rates (8-9+ C/km) noted via latest objective analysis and modified RAP forecast soundings, an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts may develop where stronger downdrafts can transport greater momentum to the surface. Marginally severe hail may also be possible with any transient supercell structure that can evolve owing to elongated hodographs and cool mid-level temperatures. The magnitude of the severe threat will generally be tempered by weak buoyancy and the relatively quick onset of nocturnal cooling within the next couple of hours, however, which will preclude the need for a watch. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 10/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 43161334 43921244 44151188 44221127 44201101 44091083 43661056 42791055 41931079 41561126 41301244 41471296 41801344 42131361 42491369 43161334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN