Mesoscale Discussion 2363
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2363 at · Valid:
Summary
A tornado threat is increasing across portions of southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina this afternoon. This situation may lead to a tornado watch with potential wind gusts up to 125 mph.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 111736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111735 NCZ000-VAZ000-111830- Mesoscale Discussion 2363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeast Virginia into eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 111735Z - 111830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase across portions of southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina. A Tornado Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A pair of tornadic supercells across northern NC are poised to track eastward as an axis of coinciding strong low-level shear and low to moderate CAPE continues to advance with a surface low. Earlier precipitation has cleared this region, with surface temperatures already climbing to 78 F in spots, with low to mid 70s F surface dewpoints noted. With time, low-level shear will only continue to increase, along with the threat for at least a few additional tornadoes wherever supercell structures manifest. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 34487722 36277726 36877734 37297721 37427698 37277656 36797609 36257590 35647596 35117610 34617654 34487722 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH