Mesoscale Discussion 2370
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2370 at · Valid:
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and occasional tornadoes are expected across southern and eastern Kansas into western Missouri through late evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 132327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132326 MOZ000-KSZ000-140100- Mesoscale Discussion 2370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682... Valid 132326Z - 140100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682, with a locally greater short-term severe risk likely across portions of south-central Kansas and northeastern Kansas into western Missouri. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along a progressive cold front across portions of southern and eastern Kansas over the past few hours, with isolated reports of severe wind gusts and large hail noted through 2320 UTC. Large hail will continue to be the predominant severe threat in the near-term owing to strong effective shear and elongated hodographs as discrete/semi-discrete supercells evolve east-southeastward along surface cold front from northeastern Kansas into western Missouri and across south-central Kansas. A tornado or two also remains possible, especially with any supercell structure(s) that can be maintained for another hour or two within the vicinity of the surface triple point across southern Kansas as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Although, this remains somewhat uncertain owing to the quick southward progression of the surface cold front that has undercut some stronger updrafts. With time, continued linear forcing along the surface cold front coupled with increasing cell interactions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented parallel to the front will continue to favor upscale growth into one or more convective clusters. This will support a transition toward damaging/severe wind gusts as the primary severe risk, particularly across south-central Kansas and northeastern Kansas/western Missouri where storms can remain surface-based along/ahead of the cold front. ..Chalmers.. 10/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37329970 38039861 39379608 39759517 39879456 39839414 39559386 39059398 38589454 37769624 37039800 37019849 37039906 37119962 37329970 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN