Mesoscale Discussion 2373
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2373 at · Valid:
Summary
Strong winds and marginal hail may develop through northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma this afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 141833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141832 OKZ000-TXZ000-142130- Mesoscale Discussion 2373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141832Z - 142130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity over northwest Texas and develop into southwest Oklahoma through this afternoon. Scattered strong to damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible. DISCUSSION...An outflow-reinforced boundary is currently settling south into northwest TX, with some indications of stalling. The air mass north of this boundary is relatively cool, though areas of strong heating should eventually aid in destabilization later today. In the near term, visible imagery shows a prominent CU field in the vicinity of the boundary, with a stronger cell already affecting King County TX. Other smaller cells are also developing eastward near the boundary. The southwest flow regime ahead of the incoming shortwave trough, along with increasing low-level southerly winds should aid in air mass recovery toward the Red River Valley this afternoon, and farther northeast later this evening as a low-level jet develops. MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg over TX, along with effective shear of 50-60 kt will favor cellular storm mode, and marginal hail may occur. Given the boundary orientation, any tornado risk should be brief as cells cross to the north. With such high precipitable water content, substantial outflow is expected, and a corridor of severe wind gusts may develop should storms trend toward bowing structures. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 34399789 33879831 33229938 33010016 32980073 33310084 33960054 34949940 35079871 34859809 34399789 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN