Mesoscale Discussion 2423
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2423 at · Valid:
Summary
A line of thunderstorms capable of producing severe winds and tornadoes may develop across portions of central and southern New Mexico this evening. These storms could bring damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, with the risk increasing over the next few hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 012142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012142 NMZ000-012315- Mesoscale Discussion 2423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and southern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012142Z - 012315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least some increase in the overall severe risk is possible over the next couple of hours. The timing of watch issuance remains unclear. DISCUSSION...A broad area of precipitation has advanced eastward into eastern Arizona/western New Mexico through mid-afternoon in advance of a leading mid-level shortwave trough currently noted over western Arizona. Through 2140 UTC, convective activity within this band has been limited, with relatively minimal lightning activity noted across southeastern Arizona/northern Mexico over the past several hours. While clearer conditions have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s F downstream across central/southern New Mexico, latest HRRR- and RAP-based objective analyses suggest that surface-based buoyancy remains fairly weak (generally in the 250-750 J/kg range) amid poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite this relatively limited thermodynamic environment, strong deep-layer flow/shear (0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60+ kts) is more than sufficient for the development of organized convection. Latest forecast guidance continues to suggest that a broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms will emerge across central NM (and perhaps southwestern NM/southeastern AZ) in the 22-00z time frame, with the potential for damaging/severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. This risk is expected to increase with time this evening, particularly as convection evolves eastward into eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. Given the slow evolution of convection thus far, the timing of watch issuance remains unclear; although, a WW will probably be needed eventually for at least a portion of the Slight-risk area pending the development/intensification of convection. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 11/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34350801 35190747 36000654 36200603 36170552 35920518 35370511 34250529 33220578 32800643 32610740 32690796 33100824 33760828 34350801 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN