Mesoscale Discussion 2424
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2424 at · Valid:
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are expected across eastern New Mexico, West Texas, and the western Oklahoma Panhandle early to mid-evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 012329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012329 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-020200- Mesoscale Discussion 2424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the western Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 012329Z - 020200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...An increasing risk for QLCS circulations and perhaps leading supercell tornadoes is expected early to mid evening. Severe wind gusts will also be possible as well. A watch is likely this evening with a tornado watch being possible. DISCUSSION...A linear band of low-topped convection continues eastward in the vicinity of Albuquerque. Strong mid-level ascent will continue to spread eastward this evening as a potent mid-level shortwave trough moves east. Lightning activity continues to increase with this linear band. With time, this convection will encounter upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints east of the terrain. This will occur coincident with a marked increase in 700 mb flow across the Southwest/southern High Plains regions. The expectation is for there to be an increase in QLCS circulation and perhaps leading supercell potential by around 03Z. Given the strong wind fields, even modest convection will be capable of severe wind gusts. A watch is likely this evening for parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Some consideration for a tornado watch will be given. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 11/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33090449 33140492 33700511 34560496 35820448 36450424 36930272 36420209 35110204 34140279 33740317 33090449 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN