Mesoscale Discussion 2429
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2429 at · Valid:
Summary
Potential severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to 1.25 inches may develop across central and northern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas through the early afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 021756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021755 KSZ000-OKZ000-021930- Mesoscale Discussion 2429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026 Areas affected...central and northern OK into southeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021755Z - 021930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Relatively high uncertainty in the near term on whether robust/sustained storm development occurs during the next few hours. Trends will be closely monitored. DISCUSSION...Midday visible satellite/radar imagery shows a confluence band of deepening convection from near Chickasha, OK north-northeastward to near Wichita, KS. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s with mid 60s deg F dewpoints. Convective inhibition is gradually eroding but a relatively thick stratus layer will likely delay stronger heating/mixing through the early afternoon. Current thinking is greater buoyancy will develop west of this convective band from southwest OK northwest into northwestern OK. Nonetheless, the Wichita, KS WSR-88D VAD shows a gradual intensification of the wind profile and 0-1 km shear approaching 30 kt. A shallow supercell or two may eventually form within this convective band. The risk for severe associated with any of these storms remains unclear. ..Smith/Bentley.. 11/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36299769 37299758 38159688 38209634 37889598 37159611 34959715 34619774 34629810 34829831 36299769 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN