Mesoscale Discussion 2430
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2430 at · Valid:
Summary
Severe storms including large hail and tornadoes are expected to develop this afternoon across western and central Oklahoma, south-central Kansas, and western North Texas. The tornado risk is likely to peak between 5pm and 9pm as storms move through the US-81 and I-35 corridors.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 021855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021855 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-022100- Mesoscale Discussion 2430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026 Areas affected...western into central OK...south-central KS...and western north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021855Z - 022100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is likely 230-400pm over western OK along the dryline. As updrafts mature, a few supercells will evolve with an initial large-hail threat. The tornado risk will increase and probably peak 5-9pm as storms approach and move through the US-81 and I-35 corridors. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a destabilizing stratocumulus field across western OK and more vigorous cumuliform development near the dryline and pacific front (located near DDC south-southwestward into the eastern TX Panhandle/Caprock vicinity). Surface temperatures east of the dryline over northwest TX northward through far western OK have risen into the upper 70s deg F with additional heating into the 80s expected. West Texas Mesonet and Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint observations indicate a moist plume extending from western north TX northward through western OK into the Pratt/Greensburg, KS vicinity. This warming/destabilizing characterization of the boundary layer is in contrast to the airmass sampled earlier this morning by the 16 UTC (10am CST) Norman, OK raob only depicting very weak buoyancy (100 J/kg MLCAPE) and a 12.4 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Expecting additional destabilization with greater mixing and erosion of MLCINH to occur over the western 1/3 of OK through the mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) with a moist/high relative humidity boundary layer as lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increase from 13 to 14-15 g/kg. Expecting a few supercells to evolve from the initial discrete storms with a large-hail threat ensuing quickly. The tornado risk will likely peak during the 5-9pm period as storms move east through the moist plume. Additional storms will likely develop with a mixed mode of supercell and linear segments posing a continued risk for tornadoes and severe gusts. ..Smith/Bentley.. 11/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 34439965 37719923 38249849 38439744 38349642 37749605 37629604 36079612 34649678 33849797 33869936 34439965 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN