Mesoscale Discussion 2433
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2433 at · Valid:
Summary
Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, and northwestern Iowa through the next couple of hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 022156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022155 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-022330- Mesoscale Discussion 2433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022155Z - 022330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A low probability risk for an isolated damaging wind gust and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a broken, loosely organized band of convection extending from near Grand Island, NE, northeastward to Sioux Falls, SD. Latest objective analysis suggests that MLCAPE has increased to 500-1000 J/kg within this corridor. While effective shear remains weaker compared to areas farther south (around 25-30 kts), transient storm organization may occur with stronger updrafts. Given strong low-level flow (around 40 kts sampled at 1 km AGL by the OAX VWP) and 100+ J/kg 0-3 km CAPE overlapping ambient surface vertical vorticity, a low probability risk for an isolated damaging wind gust and/or brief tornado may exist over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not expected owing to the isolated/limited nature of this severe risk. ..Chalmers/Bentley.. 11/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40649866 42479736 43099696 43549677 43959660 44109628 44029587 43679567 43169561 42299587 41409640 40759716 40509790 40519842 40649866 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH