Mesoscale Discussion 2434
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2434 at · Valid:
Summary
Severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and potentially tornadoes are expected to increase across the Texas Rolling Plains and Edwards Plateau this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 022256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022255 TXZ000-030000- Mesoscale Discussion 2434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026 Areas affected...Texas Rolling Plains into Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 022255Z - 030000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards will increase into the evening across the Rolling Plains and Edwards Plateau. A watch is likely late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...As towering cumulus continue to deepen along a surface trough/Pacific cold front, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase across parts of the Rolling Plains and Edwards Plateau this evening. Surface heating has been stronger in these areas than farther north (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). While shear and mid-level ascent do decrease with southward extent, the concern is for this weaker forcing to favor more discrete elements. As such, the threat for severe winds and hail (perhaps to around 2 in. with the stronger supercells) will be present. The threat for tornadoes is somewhat less clear. The low-level jet will be focused more into OK/KS, but an axis of stronger 850 mb winds will extend southwestward into the Edwards Plateau. Should a mature supercell persist eastward into the evening, there would be an increasing risk for tornadoes given the enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 11/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31990133 32910023 33169993 33379858 33159811 32619813 31639899 31499959 31480065 31630102 31990133 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN