Mesoscale Discussion 2435
Issued as Mesoscale Discussion 2435 at · Valid:
Summary
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are possible across north-central Oklahoma and south-central/southeast Kansas through the next few hours.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 022353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022352 KSZ000-OKZ000-030115- Mesoscale Discussion 2435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026 Areas affected...North-central Oklahoma into south-central/southeast Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 701... Valid 022352Z - 030115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 701 continues. SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of north-central Oklahoma into south-central/southeast Kansas for some increase in severe potential during the next couple of hours -- within Tornado Watch #701. Primary concerns are damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented line of thunderstorms is tracking east-northeastward across much of central OK into far south-central KS. In the near-term, an embedded cluster in the northern portion of the line has shown signs of recent intensification and will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and possibly sporadic hail over north-central OK. High-resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale low feature may evolve eastward along the KS/OK border in response to strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent overspreading the area. This, combined with a gradually strengthening low-level jet and related increase in hodograph size/curvature, may support a locally favorable corridor for storm intensification during the next couple of hours. The main uncertainties are the potential for a continued messy mode evolution and increasing nocturnal static stability/limited buoyancy. However, given the increasingly favorable wind profile (see ICT VWP), any embedded supercells/mesovorticies could pose a risk of damaging wind gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and sporadic severe hail. The overall threat will be maximized with any NNW/SSE-oriented convective segments -- given southwesterly low/deep-layer shear sampled by regional VWP. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36559809 37359788 37589772 37769734 37749695 37539675 36969683 36599715 36379760 36369803 36559809 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN